Dry Weather and Extreme Fire Danger

By Russell Russ

September’s dry conditions intensified in October, which was even drier. Two very dry months during autumn was a bad combination that led to extreme forest fire danger levels. Connecticut does not often have conditions like this, and it requires a new way of thinking. Setting aside, the lack of decent rainfall and the forest fire concerns, it was a beautiful weather month and that made for easy leaf cleanup.  But that was overshadowed by the constant worry about fires. When fire danger levels are extreme, everyone must be cautious and follow all posted announcements. Yes, this is serious business. 

The month’s low temperature of 28 degrees was observed on Oct. 17 and 18. The high of 80 degrees was observed on Oct. 22. There were four days (Oct. 21, 22, 30 and 31) with record-setting daily high temperatures and two days (Oct. 20 and 23) that just missed a record. The high on Halloween was a spooky 76 degrees, the warmest Halloween in 93 years. There were, however, 13 days when frost was observed. The monthly mean temperature of 50.8 degrees was 3.0 degrees above normal. This October was tied with Octobers of 1946 and 1963 as Norfolk’s 13^th warmest October since 1932. Norfolk’s warmest October was in 2001 with a mean temperature of 55.3 degrees. The coldest was in 1974 with 42.0 degrees. 

Total precipitation for the month was just 0.67 inches, a whopping 3.69 inches below normal. Only six days during the month saw measurable rainfall. The largest daily amount was a meager 0.36 inches that fell Oct. 13-14. It was Norfolk’s second driest October on record. The driest October was in 1963 with just 0.63 inches and the wettest was in 1955 with 17.49 inches. There was no snowfall this October, technically making it 0.9 inches below normal. Norfolk’s record for October snowfall continues to be the impressive 23.8 inches recorded in 2011. 

Through October, total precipitation amount for the year was 43.47 inches. That is just 0.09 inches above normal (almost exactly normal). What is not normal is that we were 7.27 inches above normal after August and have been 7.18 inches below normal since then. In fact, this September and October, with a combined precipitation total of just 1.85 inches, is the driest (by far) on record. Second is 1948 with 2.83 inches. Over the last 93 years, only one period had below two inches for rainfall, two were below three inches, four were below four inches and twelve were below five inches. You could say the fall of 2024 was off the charts for being dry. Add this drought condition to numerous windy days and seasonal leaf drop and you have a recipe for extreme forest fire conditions. 

Unfortunately, November continued the extended stretch of dry weather. It was also warm. Up to Nov. 20, it was over 8 degrees above normal for temperature and only 0.19 inches of rain had fallen. Forest fire concerns increased throughout the month, capped by a huge forest fire in Great Barrington, Mass. Heavy smoke and haze from that fire was very noticeable in Norfolk and many parts of Connecticut on Nov. 19-20. Fortunately, the weather changed on Nov. 21 when we received some much-needed rainfall that changed to snowfall. The Nov. 21-22 storm totals of 1.62 inches of rain and over an inch and a half of snow should greatly reduce the current forest fire danger level. 

Let us all hope that our extended warm and dry streak is over. More snow is in the forecast for late November and early December. Winter is finally knocking on the door. Time for cozy fireplace fires to replace dangerous forest fires. 

Weather observations are recorded by the Great Mountain Forest at Norfolk’s National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Observer Station, Norfolk 2SW.