Is El Niño Our Friend?

By Russell Russ

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has recorded no hurricanes and only seven named storms (as of late September). The average is seven hurricanes and 14 named storms. In August, NOAA updated its 2026 prediction to two to six hurricanes and seven to 13 named storms. Zero hurricanes is a record for NOAA, which began the modern satellite era of storm tracking in 1966. Historically, there have only been two years (1907 and 1914) when no hurricanes were recorded during the June 1 to Nov. 30 hurricane season. NOAA says a major factor this season is El Niño (look it up). Connecticut, and especially the Northwest Corner, is rarely directly impacted by hurricanes or named storms, but their indirect effects do play a significant role in our seasonal and annual precipitation totals. El Niño does affect Norfolk’s weather. This year, it may have contributed to our pleasant summer and early fall.

August’s high temperature of 87 degrees was observed on Aug. 7 and the low of 49 was observed on Aug. 29. A high of 86 was observed on Aug. 6. Only two days reached the mid- to upper 80s this month. The monthly mean temperature of 68.4 degrees was 2.0 degrees above normal. This August was tied with August 1959 as Norfolk’s 15th warmest August. It did not feel that warm this month, and there were no daily temperature records. Relatively mild nighttime temperatures are probably the reason the monthly mean temperature was as high as it was. The warmest August, and the sixth warmest of any month, was in 2022, with 71.8 degrees. The coolest August on record was in 1964, with 61.5 degrees.

The total precipitation recorded for the month was 2.68 inches, 1.92 inches below normal. The month’s greatest rainfall came on Aug. 3, with 1.23 inches. One thunderstorm was observed on Aug. 8. Other areas in the tri-state region have recorded much more rainfall than Norfolk this summer. The isolated heavy rains have avoided Norfolk. Many of Norfolk’s wetter summer and early fall months have been the result of indirect effects from hurricanes or tropical storms in the Atlantic. A lack of these storms means that our rainfall must mostly come from cold fronts and thunderstorms. Even those have been few and far between this summer.

Norfolk’s wettest August, and wettest of any month, is still August 1955 (Flood of ’55) with 23.67 inches. The driest was in 1953, with just 0.65 inches, which was also Norfolk’s fifth driest month of any month.

The 2026 precipitation total through August was 29.89 inches. July’s higher than normal rainfall total helped, but after August, this year’s deficit was 4.46 inches. This is low, but not near any records.

Autumn has arrived. September, through Sept. 24, has not been bad for weather—a cooler continuation of August’s weather. September has been about average for temperatures. Frost can happen in September, but none has been observed through Sept. 24. Rainfall was nearly two inches below normal. A late September nor’easter in the forecast, with potentially high winds and heavy rain, bears watching.

Weather observations are recorded by the Great Mountain Forest at Norfolk’s National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Observer Station, Norfolk 2SW.